Horizon
Possible trajectories and coming bifurcations. Thinking long-term without losing present urgency.
Introduction
We stand at a bifurcation point. Multiple futures remain possible, but the window for choosing narrows. Understanding possible trajectories helps us navigate toward preferable outcomes.
Scenario Landscapes
Continuation
Business as usual leads to predictable outcomes: increasing inequality, ecological degradation, social fragmentation. This path requires no decision—only inaction.
Collapse
Systems under stress can fail suddenly. Supply chains, financial systems, and ecosystems all exhibit nonlinear dynamics. Collapse is not gradual decline but sudden phase transition.
Transformation
Deliberate transformation remains possible. Historical precedents—the abolition of slavery, the creation of social democracy—show that fundamental change can occur within generations.
Navigating Uncertainty
Robust Strategies
Given uncertainty, we should favor strategies that perform reasonably across multiple scenarios rather than optimizing for a single predicted future.
Optionality
Preserving options has value. Irreversible decisions should be delayed when possible. Reversible experiments should be encouraged.
Long-term Thinking
Decisions made today will affect generations unborn. Governance must extend its temporal horizon beyond electoral cycles and quarterly reports.